EPSY 5240 Norman, D. (1993). Things that make us smart. Reading MA: Addison-Wesley. Chapter 8: Predicting the future. Reviewed by Denise Herman.


Norman is the first to admit there is little chance for success when predicting the future. However, his focus in chapter 8 is more on what he considers to be the "real issues" that accompany the introduction of all new tools: political, economic and social effects. His central point is that all technological changes bring both benefits and problems, but it is important to anticipate the problems in order to control them. While each technology brings its own set of problems, Norman alerts us to four overreaching dangers:

  1. infringement of privacy,
  2. equitable access to technology by all,
  3. greater opportunity for sociopathic crimes, and
  4. unknown effects on personal interactions.

He also continues to remind us that presently there is a general failure by software designers to design tools that enhance cognition, thereby increasing society's general reliance on experiential modes of thinking at the expense of reflection.

Norman's predictions fall into two general categories--realistic predictions and fantasies--and for each, he focuses on the possible political, economic, and social effects. Take his discussion of the electronic library and the rise in electronic media . There are the ethical and economic issues of ownership and compensation for materials, now digitized, that extend to the possible demise of print publishing. Then, as electronic materials are presented in greater varieties of formats, individualized to the subscriber, designers face a fundamental challenge: Will these new formats be machine or human-centered? Finally, there is the question of shared culture. If media is not disseminated broadly the way broadcast television, movies and even newspapers currently are, will we continue to share a common culture? Norman continues to explore political, economic and social benefits and problems as he discusses "fantasy technologies" that seem to alter reality, like computer-assisted art and music composition for the otherwise unskilled, and simulated appearances and voices to hide natural or perceived flaws.

There is something about the future and technology that captures the imagination, but as Norman makes the point, "imagination is more agile than reality" (217), and Norman makes a good case for attending to reality. His discussion of the helicopter is a perfect example. Futurists predicted that everyone would have their own private helicopters, but they failed to take the social consequences into account..."the stability problems, the noise, or for that matter, the danger once millions of helicopters started darting this way and that" (186). What dangers do we ignore as we advance? While Norman does not forget the benefits of new technologies, he insists that we look more closely at the human issues first.

As an educator, I am reminded to heed this advice. Expensive, new technology in the classroom should be embraced only after it has been determined that such tools are human-centered and, most importantly, enhance cognition. As Norman says, "Experiential or reflective, that is the question" (219). This dilemma is especially true for educators.


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