As far as other foreign relations are concerned, up to this point, the Eritreans seem to be doing well. In particular, they have kept close relations with Sudan, with which they share a mutual border and the general neighborhood. Lieutenant General Omer Ahmed El-Beshir, the military leader of Sudan, was the first African head of state to recognize Eritrea's de facto independence, with the establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level. He visited Eritrea in early March 1992 to underscore the friendship between the two countries. Sudan supported the EPLF both politically and economically during the years of the Eritrean war and provided safe haven for more than a quarter of a million Eritrean refugees.

On the other hand, relationships between Eritrea and Djibouti and Egypt remain strained. On several occasions, Afeworqi has accused Egypt and Djibouti of instigating ethnic and tribal disputes in the region. In particular, this accusation was directed against Egypt. Afeworqi fears that Egypt might not recognize the Eritrean people's right to self-determination, because Egypt consistently supported the Ethiopian Government prior to Eritrean independence. This support was intimately linked to Egypt's strategy of ensuring continued flow of the Blue Nile and its fertile silt (which are vital to Egyptian agriculture) out of Ethiopia, through Sudan, and into Egypt. Maintaining strong relations with the Ethiopian regime might ensure the continued flow of these elements, whereas support to the Eritreans or recognition of Eritrean independence might jeopardize that flow.

In addition, Eritrea faces several challenges and resistance from many African states which have traditionally rejected the idea of national self-determination or the creation of new states out of those already existing. Many of these states as well as the Organization of African Unity argue that recognition of such rights encourages fragmentation or separation, thereby undermining "national" unity and "national" development.

Internal affairs are equally complex. Afeworqi is putting off the introduction of political pluralism in Eritrea. Multi-party elections will be held only after the 1993 referendum and the formation of a constituent assembly and independent judiciary. Until then, no political opposition groups will be allowed. The EPLF (now a Tegregna-dominated statist regime) has consolidated its position to the exclusion of any rival political or ethnic groups. This has raised concerns and anxiety among the Eritrean opposition groups and community. Yet several prominent members of the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF)
the main non-Tegregna rival to
the EPLFreturned to Eritrea at the EPLF's invitation to help rebuild their country. Among those who returned are Idriss Galaydos, one of the founders of the ELF, and Abu Tayara, a prominent military leader of the ELF. However, other ELF officials are refusing to go back and participate with the EPLF.

Apparently, the Provisional Government of Eritrea is concerned that the policy of the EPRDF in neighboring Ethiopia, which supports ethnic self-determination (at least in rhetoric), might have repercussions in Eritrea, provoking ethnic minorities there also to raise the question of self-determination. Regionalization in Ethiopia, under the EPRDF regime, is new and has a very uncertain viability, as illustrated by the continuing and often violent struggle of Oromos to gain their own independence outside of the new Ethiopian state.The regionalization policy has provoked questions about how Eritrea will deal with the indigenous Afars, Sahos and Kunamas who together make up more than 15 percent of the territory's population. Eritrean leaders are concerned that the ongoing political turmoil and inter-ethnic conflict in Ethiopia might spill over into Eritrea, especially in that region inhabited by the Afars who straddle the borders of Eritrea, Djibouti, and Ethiopia and want their own unified state.

While the demise of the Mengistu regime and the end of the civil war have brought profound changes, offering a new era of peace and hope, Eritrea has been left ravaged by war and decades of neglect. The rigid and totalitarian rule of Mengistu Hailemariam, known also as the "Black Stalin," has taken its toll while the war has destroyed Eritrea's infrastructure, left thousands dead,and forced millions to flee.

Hampered also by widespread drought, an unqualified labor force, and a scarcity of capital, the Eritrean economy is on the verge of collapse. Afeworqi has discarded the idea of nationalizing most industries (originally in the EPLF's program of 1987) and instead seems to favor a free-market policy. Although he has succeeded in convincing the West of his intent to limit government intervention despite his earlier adherence to Marxist economic ideology, foreign investment is still limited and slow. Since the end of the civil war has not necessarily brought a long-lasting peace or political stability, and Eritrea is not yet officially independent, foreign investors face many technical and bureaucratic obstacles in order to do business with Eritrea.

The Eritreans won the war, but they have a long way to go before they win the political battle and achieve a sustainable economic growth. The challenges of independence are enormous and are as complicated as the guerrilla war itself. As one of their leaders observed, "It is much easier to fight in the bushes than to build a liberated country."

Fourth World Bulletin • October 1992

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